Most of the tasks, carried out by the CDU TEK, are formulated according to the needs of the Ministry of Energy. Operational decisions, development of departmental legal instruments, as well as legislative initiatives in the Fuel and Energy Complex (the FEC) are based on statistical and analytical materials provided by the CDU TEK.
Pavel Sorokin,
Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation«Analysis and forecast in energy industries is not a mere compilation from other sources, but a tremendous work of modeling of all the sectors of world energy sector and fuel market of each country. It requires a data collection and analysis system, and a team to track and update the information. Naturally, we are facing the challenge of improving our work. Some steps have been taken in that direction. It is important that comprehensive access to such information and independent assessments of various proposals be available to both the Ministry of Energy’s top management and our top companies».
Experts from the CDU TEK, who prepare statistical and analytical materials, based on the daily monitoring of the FEC enterprises’ economic activities, tell us about their work
Evgeny Syrovoy,
Deputy Director of the CDU TEK
– What areas of the CDU TEK are you responsible for?
– I am responsible for the issues of operational monitoring of production and economic indicators of the FEC enterprises in Russia in the field of fossil fuels, their processing and distribution, including petrochemical complex, up to the second stage of processing, and their pricing environment.
My area of expertise includes the work of the Departments of the Dispatcher’s Operation Information, Oil and Petrochemical Industry Monitoring, Pricing Environment Monitoring. In our work, analysis and prognosis are more of the tip of the iceberg. Most of our functions are below-the-radar and include collection, processing, verification, and storage of the incoming data from the subscribers, preparation of regulatory reports, including descriptive statistics.
– Can you name the major report subscribers?
– Within the Department of the Dispatcher’s Operation Information, these are the duty dispatcher services, planning and production departments of the extracting and processing companies. The scope is vast – it covers the whole sector. These are extracting and oil-processing companies, big and small. Apart from the subscribers, who provide reports directly from the production facilities, we collect information from the dispatcher services that are managed by the federal executive bodies. Those include the divisions of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the Situational Analytical Center of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation (the SAC of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation) and other state institutions. On a daily basis, our dispatchers collect and clarify data on various events, received from the information providers. Of utmost importance is personal interaction with the subscribers through all available means of communication.
– What kinds of events are you dealing with?
– Scheduled and unscheduled. At a scheduled event the work is carried out in the regular format: receipt of a summary, clarification of information, verification (checking and confirming the information), its writing to the database. Unscheduled events are storms in ports, pipeline bursts with spills of oil and oil products, unscheduled equipment shutdowns in plants (oil refineries), caused by unscheduled repairs, accidents, electricity shortages, mining emergencies and accidents.
– Does the Department of the Monitoring of Oil Processing and Petrochemical Industry have similar functions?
– Yes. As for oil processing and petrochemical industry, there is also collection, processing and storage of data on the supply of raw materials, output of oil products, both main ones and those related to the nomenclature of motor fuels in maximal approximation.
– Do you face any problems with data collection?
– Yes, we do. They are mainly connected with failures to meet the deadlines for reporting; breaking of the so-called blanket rules, when the subscribers ignore the prescribed formats when providing data; refusals to provide information; not understanding of the general concept and the need for institutional accountability of the Ministry of Energy to the subscribers.
– How do you solve the problems that arise?
– Such issues are dealt with through personal work with the provider of a certain report – by explaining, explicating. Mandatory talks with senior and middle management of the subscriber companies are held. In some cases, we have to engage the assistance of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, including editing or creating of the general or targeted executive documents.
– Please, tell us about the CDU TEK’s participation in the work of the task force for monitoring of production and consumption of oil products in Russia.
– The CDU TEK is a permanent member of the task force for monitoring of the situation in production and consumption of oil products in Russia. The Ministry of Energy holds meetings once a week. Lately, the representatives of the Federal Customs Service, the Ministry of Fuel and Energy of the Republic of Crimea, the Russian Energy Agency of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, Russian Railways, Russian Fuel Union and other invited organizations have been taking part in those meetings. For every meeting, we prepare reports on the current situation on the domestic oil market, including the data on the motor fuel inventory accumulations, pricing environment, taxes and increments. There are weekly meetings of the Stock-exchange committee of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia, which address the current situation on the oil market. The CDU TEK bases its reports on the indicators that are already adapted for the Stock-exchange committee’s tasks.
Gennady Meshkov,
Deputy Director of the CDU TEK
– What functions of the CDU TEK are you responsible for?
– Currently I am responsible for the departments of oil, natural gas, and coal industries. As you know, our organization was established more than 35 years ago under the name of “CDU Oil”. Later on, with the emergence of new tasks in operational monitoring of other sectors of the Russian FEC, we expanded our activities to the natural gas and coal industries.
– What kind of data are the most wanted?
– Typically, the most wanted is the operational information on the performance indicators of key sectors of the FEC, the scope of which is quite significant. At the same time, the current changes in the international and domestic energy markets create the demand of the Ministry of Energy of Russia and other executive bodies for extra information, which is also collected by the CDU TEK. In short, we are trying to keep up with the times.
– Who requests the information?
– As for the key lines of business, our main consumer is our supervising body, the Ministry of Energy of Russia. But, the Federal executive bodies, due to their close cooperation with the Ministry, are as well. The information is compiled according to their needs. Naturally, we closely cooperate with the FEC companies, which act as both our subscribers, who provide us with initial information, and as consumers of information. However, the departure from the entrenched standard forms causes them to come up with unusual requests, to which we, as a rule, try to respond quickly.
– How does the work done by the CDU TEK help in achieving nationwide and sectoral objectives?
– Given that the Department, at its own level, is responsible for a considerable amount of information, all sectors of the FEC are almost entirely our responsibility. Subsequently, the responsibilities for creating of stimulating economic environment, restrictions, etc., are escalated to another level – that of the federal executive bodies. Thus, our information plays an important role in preparation of legal documents and programs of various levels and allows for carrying out the analysis of the current situation in the sectors of the Russian FEC. In essence, it serves as the bricks in the foundation, upon which the regulatory and legal documents are created – from the departmental ones to the directives and executive orders from the government, as well as federal laws regulating the FEC.
Anatoly Karetnikov,
Head of the Department of Information and Analysis of the CDU TEK
– What areas of the CDUTEK are you responsible for?
– As the Head of the Department of Information and Analysis, I am responsible for the work of the divisions for the analysis of international and regional FEC, Fuel and Energy Resources (FER) market, price monitoring, as well as the sectors of balance sheet and technical analysis, mass media, and publishing.
– What are the main functions of the Department?
– I can single out the following key functions: implementation of the CDU TEK and the Ministry of Energy’s directives and orders concerning the issuing of analytical, graphical and other materials; taking part in preparation of the information, review, reference, and analytical materials about the activities of the FEC sectors and the situation on the energy markets of Russia, CIS states, and other countries, as well as other materials necessary for the meetings, held by the Russian Government and the divisions of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, teleconferences and other panel discussions, intersectoral workgroups; participation in creating of slides and other graphical materials for reports, presentations and meetings of the Russian Government and the Ministry of Energy of Russia’s panel of experts; participation in collection and primary processing of the data on the FEC sectors, including the work with the sectoral information centers, and other news, information and analytical agencies; preparation and publication of information and analytical articles, statistical data, corporate information from the enterprises, on the website and in the periodicals, issued by the CDU TEK; preparation of materials on the enterprises’ activities for publication in the media. The Department receives, processes and structures information on all lines of business, it organizes the CDU TEK database by the areas of activities; it replicates and provides information on the range of services that the enterprises provide in accordance with their agreements with the third parties; in cooperation with the subdivisions of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, it organizes the implementation of the decisions, made by the federal executive bodies, and directives that the enterprises need in order to fulfill their tasks.
– Do you leverage the resources of other structural subdivisions of the CDU TEK? Do you work with the third parties?
– Employees of the Department receive information from the structural subdivisions of the CDU TEK and from the FEC enterprises. Employees of other structural subdivisions of the Department and the Ministry of Energy cooperate on the issues concerning the implementation of the directives from our management. Apart from that, the Department cooperates with specialized information agencies and centers.
Vladislav Petrov,
Deputy Head of the Department of the FEC monitoring at the CDU TEK
– I came to the CDU TEK from the natural gas industry not long ago; previously, I worked for “NIIGAZ-Ekonomika” as a senior research fellow. One of the things I do is forecasting, but I consider my tasks and objectives to be a little wider than that. There are plans to restructure our analytical work in the future, using data analysis tools, widen our analytical skills across the board.
– What set of tools can be used in analytical work?
– As a matter of fact, the methods of forecasting have transformed from some kind of art into a skill. Art is something that cannot be replicated…
– Maybe forecasting is a kind of fortunetelling?
– No. But it is a quite complicated mathematical procedure. And, of course, it is necessary to “feel” the data. In other words, it is hardly possible to just come into this business and try to forecast something – you need to have a sense, what is significant and what is not. One thing is forecasting in sales industry, which is largely predictable. Forecasting in energy sector is not the same thing. Forecasting is possible everywhere. You want a forecast for the price of oil for the next 50 years – here you are. No problems, computers don’t care. But the point is whether such forecasts make any sense and contain necessary information. For instance, who knew that there would be the Covid-19 pandemic? All forecasts made in 2019 proved to be erroneous because of the lockdown. Yet back in November, 2019, it was already clear that there were some problems in China. All information was available, but no one could foresee the consequences. The problem is that the forecasts are based on the accomplished facts. In other words, we interpolate what has already happened. Any deviation from what we have already experienced consigns all forecasts to the dustbin. The global lockdown we have lived through was unprecedented and in no way predicted. But now we know that any energy model should include data on global epidemics. They are certainly hard to predict, but even so, they have their patterns. So, they could be factored in, it will not hurt.
– How are the forecast products made?
– From my point of view, the final product is the awareness of a decision maker. This is the most important thing. As I see it, to be up to date, it should be a sort of an app, preconfigured by the experts and connected to the current databases, which could, normally, provide graphical images that could be zoomed in. Graphical image appears to be the most comprehensible, the easiest to perceive. The most important things should be perceived quickly and easily. I envisage that in the long run the CDU TEK will become a competence center, providing, among other things, unique analytical services.
We can make it to a higher level. Major think tanks – Pricewaterhouse, Wood Mackenzie – operate with numbers based on the working models of the energy markets around the world. This is what the work of the Analytical Department is based on. My goal, as I see it, is the CDU TEK becoming one of those centers. Prerequisites are already there: we have a tremendous amount of data, which, given proper attention and care, may bear fruit.
– Is it a dream?
– Undoubtedly, you have to make yourself known, earn good reputation. Modeling is not enough – it is only half the battle, – you need to demonstrate that these models are adequately verified, i.e. checked how close to reality they are.
– Who is the consumer of the product?
– Primarily, we are here to serve the Ministry of Energy’s requests. Other tasks are secondary. We have customers, who are interested in our information. To say the truth, any of our partners can obtain unprocessed data and use it for their analysis. That is if they have a relevant analytical department, relevant competencies. They can buy naked data, which will be cheaper.
Our task is to form a competence center on the basis of the CDU TEK, which would possess information that could not be obtained anywhere else.
Pavel Kotov,
Head of the Department of Oil Industry Monitoring at the CDU TEK
– Tell us about the main tasks of the Department. What information do you process? Who is its main recipient?
– The tasks of the Department include information support of the oil and transportation sectors of the FEC of Russia.
The oil production division collects data on the production of crude oil and natural gas condensate, prospecting and production drilling, exploitation and condition of the current stock of wells, workovers and underground maintenance of the wells; operation of the wells between repairs; putting new wells in operation, technical aspects of the bottomhole zone treatment; introduction of new oilfields; construction of oilfield facilities; meeting the main technical and economical targets in oil production.
The division of oil transportation is responsible for the operational balance of crude oil; collecting the statements from producers on production and distribution of crude oil; shipment of oil to the refineries in Russia and abroad; transit of crude oil.
Information products of the department provide maximum details on the producers, suppliers and regions. The consumers of that information are the governmental bodies: first of all, the Ministry of Energy of Russia, but occasionally there are also requests from the Government, the State Duma, the Federal Tax Service.
Information collected and processed by the Department is also of interest to the various parties of the oil business: extracting, refining and service enterprises, information agencies, etc.
Anastasia Artamonova,
Head of the Department of Gas Industry Monitoring at the CDU TEK
– The Department is focused on the monitoring of performance indicators of oil and gas companies of the Russian energy sector in the following areas:
- Collecting and processing documented information and creating databases on the business activities of the enterprises engaged in the onshore and offshore extraction of gas (natural and associated) in Russia; enterprises engaged in processing and treatment of the fossil fuels, production of oil and gas products, such as liquefied hydrocarbon gas, natural stable gasoline, wide range of hydrocarbon materials, liquefied natural gas, dry stripped gas, ethane, helium, sulphur, gas condensate; enterprises engaged in transportation and storage of fossil fuels; enterprises engaged in extraction, processing, production, transportation, storage and shipping of fossil fuels and the their products;
- Subject and object balance sheet monitoring of the performance indicators of the Russian fuel and energy sector, which includes: organization of collection and processing of information necessary for the middle-term and long-term planning for the development of the Russian gas industry; forming of new balance sheet models for the main FEC sectors in gas production; formulating propositions, based on the monitoring of the FEC enterprises, regarding extraction, production, transportation, processing and distribution of natural gas and its products; collection, processing and summarization of the operational information needed for keeping track of the balance sheets and correspondence of the current balance sheet models to the real relations in the FEC, informing FEC management about implementation of the approved balance sheets in Russia; timely adjustment of the balance sheets on unprocessed natural gas to the current databases, owing to the changes in production ties, sectoral management and the oil and gas companies’ staff; summarizing balance sheets of natural gas and its products in Russia in order to reveal nonregistered flows and distributions, including collation of total figures across Russia with the data provided by the Federal Tax Service, Rosstat and other federal executive bodies;
- Cooperation with companies and enterprises engaged in extraction and processing of natural gas, and production, transportation and distribution of its products, notwithstanding their forms of ownership and affiliation, with the view of creating an accurate database on the work of the enterprises subordinate to them;
- Cooperation with the subdivisions of the Ministry of Energy of Russia and other federal executive bodies (the Federal Customs Service of Russia, the Rosstat, etc.), as well as the regional executive bodies on the issue of building up of the state information resources by way of collecting accurate and documented information from the FEC enterprises;
- Providing accurate information on the activities of the FEC enterprises to the Ministry of Energy or Russia and other federal executive bodies, as well as regional executive bodies.
There is also an annually issued brochure for the presidential panel, containing graphs, charts and analytical data on the natural gas industry. Our Department prepares regular reports about the current situation in the natural gas industry of Russia, specifically extraction and processing, output of natural gas products, playing important role in the fuel supply, such as natural gas, liquefied gas, liquefied hydrocarbon gases, natural stable gas, etc. Information on the regions is also processed on an on-going basis upon the requests of the Ministry. Apart from the basic requests concerning the regions, we prepare materials on specific clusters and zones, for instance, mining companies in the arctic zone, continental shelf of Russia.
Materials are prepared on technological works (extraction, processing, transportation) and specific products (production, shipping, storage). Each product has its own subsorts and subcategories. For instance, natural gas is subdivided into that from the gas wells and associated gas from the oil wells; liquefied hydrocarbon gases are subdivided into propane, butane, commercial propane-butane mix, isobutene, etc. Preparation of information involves full analysis of subjects and objects, and cooperation between them.
The whole process of collection of information comes down to drawing up a balance sheet for any enterprise and product, from its origin as a raw material to the finished product supplied to the customer.
Special attention is paid to forecasting, based on the data provided by the enterprises and the expert assessments of the current situation in the sector. These materials help the Ministry of Energy to draw up balance sheets on the main products of oil and gas processing.
Denis Gubanov,
Head of the Department of Coal and Peat Industry Monitoring at the CDU TEK
– What are the main tasks of your Department?
– Our main tasks are collection and processing of data on the work of the coal companies, including performance indicators connected with different types of extraction of different types of coal, its supply to the domestic and international markets, by sectors, by countries.
– Do they include coal processing?
– Coal, extracted in mines and quarries, is not clean. It needs processing, because it contains a large number of contaminants that lower its quality. In order to separate coal from these contaminants, they refine, or cleanse, it at the washing plants. As a result, concentration of unwanted mineral contaminants is reduced. Apart from that, coal is sorted according to grades and sizes of lumps. It is only after those stages that the product is supplied to the end users. Thus, coal processing (coal refinement) is an integral part of coal production. Data on the work of the coal washing plants are also collected and analyzed with the view of issuing information and analytical materials.
– Who do you have to get in touch with to get information?
– With the factory staff – people like chief engineers, mining surveyors or shift supervisors. If there is need for more accurate data, we reach out to the management. In the same way, we get information on economic performances, production costs, as well as on the number and categories of personnel. We regularly monitor salary arrears and correlation between the levels of pay and categories of jobs.
On reception of data, we draw up the reports. Based on this analysis, we prepare materials on the dynamics of development in a particular time frame (a month, a quarter, a year). Lately there has been a decrease in production, shipments have been at a minimum; all that overlapped with the problems caused by the pandemic.
There are lots of coal producers that are located in other time zones. But this inconvenience is not so much about time, as it is about internet cuts-off. That is why sometimes it is impossible to receive a report via e-mail. Then we call directly the dispatcher or the shift supervisor, luckily we have established contacts.
– What kinds of emergency situations do you face?
– Emergency situations are caused by accidents at plants; our control center receives this information. All accidents are explosions, floodings, mine collapses, methane outbursts, dust-gas-air mixture explosions. Apart from emergency situations, employees of our department keep track of the information about new construction works, modernization of production and closures of coal companies.
We work closely with the Rosstat. We receive information from the regions, for instance, we are in close contact with the Government of Kemerovo Oblast, Russian Independent Coal Employees’ Union. We try to have full information about the enterprise from the moment of its birth – the works on its design and construction, to the point of its reaching its current production level.
– Do you have any problems with getting information? If yes, how do you try to solve them?
– Such situations arise frequently. There is a popular wisdom: if you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours. The same is here. It should not be a one-way street. We provide you with some information, so we would like to get some data from you in the similar format. It should not come down to this: we give you information, but when we send a request, we hear excuses in response.
You know, very often we are forced to all but fight the enterprises, executive bodies and other parties. Coal companies check their figures, they keep track of what we provide to them. In this business, not all companies are open to contacts, and often refuse to provide information about their activities.
– In such cases, you get help from the Ministry of Energy?
– Of course, the Ministry gives us help. If only it were more effective. By the way, the Ministry of Energy is the main recipient of our information. Apart from that, the CDU TEK’s data can be of interest to the Situational Analytical Center of the Ministry of Energy of Russia, administrations and governments of Russian regions, the Federal Antimonopoly Service, the Tax and the Customs services.
